On March 20th, the 2016 Gaogong LED Spring Festival held by LED industry supply chain integration and leader Gaogong LED will be held in Shenzhen Qingqing World. More than 40 LED industry chain leaders in the Pearl River Delta region will gather together to discuss exchanges. New trends and new ideas for the development of the LED industry in the new year.
“The price of chips in the first quarter is basically stable. It is expected that there will be no major changes in chip prices in the first half of 2016.†Wang Gaoyang, marketing director of Hongli Optoelectronics, said that the price of devices below 0.5W will have little room for price reduction. Hongli Optoelectronics will also Reduce costs through resource integration, etc., without price wars.
Taking the average price of LED bulbs replacing 60W as an example, the decline in 2013-2015 was 30.74%, 23.36%, and 11.59%, respectively. The annual price decline was obviously slowing down, and the future LED decline will continue this trend. From the supply side, the reasons for the decline in LED price converge are as follows: subsidies will decline; the supply side of manufacturers such as Jingdian will shrink; the growth rate of package models will decline.
The outdoor LED display market has considerable potential, and the small pitch display is promising: the smaller the general dot pitch, the more the number of lamp beads used per unit square, so the LED small pitch market has increased the demand for LED lamp beads. To a certain extent, the supply and demand relationship of LEDs has been alleviated. For small-pitch display products, the most cost-effective part is the lamp bead. The performance of the LED display depends largely on the reliability of the lamp bead. For example, the information disclosed by Liard pointed out that the cost of LED small-pitch TV lamp beads is about 70%.
The LED penetration rate is on the rising channel, and the industry concentration is gradually increasing: in 2015, the global LED lighting penetration rate reached 27%, and the å¹µ maintains an upward trend. We believe that the domestic LED lighting penetration rate is slightly higher than the global penetration level, about 30%, of which more than 8,200 enterprises above designated size. Looking back at the traditional electronics industry, such as TV, refrigerator, air conditioner, the top 3 manufacturers have a market share of more than 50%, and currently there are at least one hundred manufacturers in the LED display industry, and the top 3 manufacturers have a total market share. 20%. Therefore, the market concentration of the LED industry will inevitably accelerate.
From the supply side point of view, the reduction of subsidies and the reduction of chip manufacturers have shown that the supply side will stabilize in the future, and the historical price trend also indicates that the LED price decline is converging. From the demand side, the LED lighting penetration rate is still rising, and the rapid growth of the small pitch market has driven the demand for LEDs. With the bottom of LED prices and the increasing concentration of the industry, we are optimistic about the long-term prospects of LED exhibitions. The industry logic of “Big Evergrande†will benefit related companies, so we recommend Hongli Optoelectronics. While continuing to expand and strengthen its main business, Hongli Optoelectronics actively deployed the “LED+Internet Finance+Car Networking†ecosystem. It is estimated that the operating income in 2015-2017 will be 15.87/23.64/3.162 billion yuan.
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