Institutional analysis and judgment
1. Substrate falling price affects distribution gross profit
In the first half of 2013, the company distributed 102,000 tons of steel plates (+22% year-on-year) and 18,000 tons of aluminum plates (+38% year-on-year), and continued to maintain its leading position in regional distribution. However, the decline in the price of the substrate (steel plate, aluminum plate) caused the gross profit of the distribution business to decline by about 22% year-on-year. The impact mechanism is: 1. Under the active distribution mode, the company will bear the loss of the substrate price; 2. In order to avoid the price drop Risk, the company can increase the proportion of the entrusted logistics distribution model, but the unit processing fee (yuan/ton) of the commissioned distribution is lower than the active distribution.
2. Small loan business remains stable
At the end of June 2013, the balance of microfinance was 526 million yuan, an increase of 6% over the end of 2012. Small loan operating income was 48.247 million yuan (+3.75% year-on-year). As a result of the 150 million yuan (+25% year-on-year) of funds disbursed into the bank, the interest expense increased more, and the contribution of the net profit of the small loan company decreased by 2.53% year-on-year to 14.34 million yuan. The business has remained basically stable.
3, LED projects are on the right track
The LED project has been completed, and MOCVD equipment has been mass-produced. Two LED chip production lines have been put into production. The LED project has achieved sales of 4.11 million yuan, indicating that the project is on the right track.
Galaxy Securities maintained its “Recommended†rating on the stock. Galaxy Securities said that in the long run, Aoyang Shunchang is expected to share the dividends brought about by the outbreak of LED lighting demand. Its endogenous basis is the established LED project subsidies and preliminary proven technical capabilities. In the short-term, the probability of Aoyang Shunchang's earnings rebound in the second half is higher. The reasons are: 1. The distribution business has been tilted towards a more conservative commission model, so the probability of a significant narrowing of gross profit per ton is lower; 2. With the follow-up 3 The MOCVD will be mass-produced at the end of July, and the scale effect of the LED project will be reflected in the fourth quarter at the latest.
Based on the impact of falling steel prices on gross profit, Galaxy Securities lowered its 2013 earnings forecast. The EPS for 2013-2015 is expected to be 0.30/0.42/0.60 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 19.5/13.9/9.7 times. In the second half of the year, the stock is expected to achieve double rebound in performance and valuation under the stimulus of slower steel price decline and LED chip sales expansion.
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