The potential of photovoltaic power generation on the roof of commercial and industrial buildings

According to statistics, the country’s existing building area exceeds 40 billion square meters, among which residential buildings account for 70%, industrial buildings 15%, and public buildings 15%.

From the data point of view, although the proportion of industrial buildings is not large, the industrial building photovoltaic roof project is the most explosive part of the market in terms of profitability and user demand.

A report released by Guotai Junan Securities believes that domestic industrial and commercial rooftop distributed photovoltaic power generation is economical, and its IRR (internal rate of return) can reach about 15%.

However, for industrial and commercial roof photovoltaic projects, the above-mentioned yields are based on their own self-use. If enterprises in a building cannot continue to operate for various reasons, the mode of subsidy for their power generation will also be changed to a simple on-grid tariff model, which will result in a significant drop in their yield.

Nevertheless, due to the need for energy conservation and emission reduction, the prospects for industrial and commercial photovoltaic roof projects are still promising in the industry. For the photovoltaic industry, it is a new challenge to be able to follow the trend and produce products that suit the characteristics of the building.

The potential of industrial and commercial roof projects
Under the background of increasing smog and weather pollution, the pressure for energy conservation and emission reduction is evident.

Xu Shaoshi, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with the media that the next step will be to promote energy-saving and emission-reduction efforts in various aspects, including increasing the evaluation and assessment of provincial-level local people's government energy-saving goals. Strictly evaluate new projects, control excessive growth of high-energy-consuming industries, and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity.

Xu Shaoshi also stated that he will do a good job in energy conservation in key areas, deepen the promotion of energy-saving and low-carbon activities in 10,000 enterprises, carry out green building initiatives, and carry out conservation-oriented public institution demonstration unit construction activities.

In Henan Province’s recently launched implementation plan of the “Green Building Action in Henan Province”, the government’s capital investment in large-scale public buildings and public office buildings of 50% or above is stipulated, and priority is given to the use of solar photovoltaic or solar thermal integrated roofs and walls. Body, shading system.

In addition to energy-saving needs under policy pressures, industrial and commercial roof projects have been quite attractive even from the point of view of yield alone.

According to industry estimates, without considering the cost of financing, a 20,000-square-meter roof, such as a 2-megawatt photovoltaic power station, will have a total investment of 18 million yuan at a cost of 9 yuan per watt. If the annual power generation is 2.1 million kilowatt-hours and the electricity is calculated at 1 yuan per kilowatt hour, the annual power generation revenue is 2.1 million yuan. In the absence of electricity price subsidies, it takes about 8.6 years to recover investment. If the subsidy is 0.45 yuan per kilowatt-hour, the investment can be recovered in less than 6 years.

Luo Da, chief engineer of Zhuhai Industrial Solar, explained that China has approximately 131 national development zones and more than 1,500 provincial-level development zones. Most of its internal buildings are relatively low and flat buildings, which are very suitable for the development of photovoltaic projects. "The development of photovoltaics can be said to be more effective for some energy-consuming consumers. It can solve the peak-to-peak load-reduction problems encountered during the peak period of electricity consumption, and it can also generate corresponding profits through electricity generation," said Rodo.

A report released by Guotai Junan Securities believes that the peak electricity price for domestic industrial and commercial electricity is generally above 1 yuan/kWh. The use of distributed photovoltaic power generation is already economic. Subsidies of 0.35 yuan to 0.45 yuan per degree will enable IRR (internal Yield) reached about 15%.

Uncertainty of continuing operations

However, for industrial and commercial buildings, the biggest obstacle to the installation of photovoltaic power plants is how to ensure the continuity of electricity use, which is directly related to the final yield of investment in photovoltaic systems.

According to the “Circular on the Implementation of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation in Terms of Electricity Subsidy Policy and Other Related Issues” issued by the Ministry of Finance recently, the state subsidizes the distributed photovoltaic power generation projects according to the amount of electricity. Combined with the previously announced subsidy standards, only the self-use part can enjoy the subsidy of 0.35 yuan/degree-0.45 yuan/degree, and the part of the internet can only enjoy the desulfurization price. The reporter roughly estimates that the former can enjoy almost twice the price of the latter, and of course, the rate of return cannot be the same.

“Compared with industrial buildings, the stability of electricity consumption for commercial projects will be better. After all, it will not suffer from problems such as lack of orders and maintenance of equipment as in the industry,” said Xu Shutong, Shanghai Shenzhou Electric Power Co., Ltd.

Some insiders think that the instability of industrial enterprises' electricity consumption has the greatest impact on those distributed photovoltaic projects constructed under the contract energy management model. For this model, the rental fees of the roof may be determined in advance, and if the company's self-use part is not enough, it will have a deviation from the profitability of the project when it is available for research.

Despite the existence of biases and certainty of earnings, investors still showed great interest in the roof projects of some high-energy-consuming enterprises with promising prospects.

At the Photovoltaic Building Market and Investment Forum organized by the China Building Construction Association’s Photovoltaic Building Application Committee, there are large consumers of energy such as printing and chemicals, and they have expressed their interest in the installation of photovoltaic systems.

For these companies, in addition to the concern that the roof of a building is suitable for installation of photovoltaic systems, it is more concerned about whether these photovoltaic systems can withstand similar dust, chemical gases, and other corrosion.

The industry believes that this directly involves cleaning the photovoltaic modules during operation and maintenance. In theory, any obstruction to the PV array will affect the power generation effects, including the shadows of surrounding buildings, the shadows of trees, fallen leaves, bird droppings, and dust. Therefore, consider the design thoroughly, otherwise the investment income will be discounted.

This is not only an opportunity but also a challenge for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry. If we can take advantage of this, we will develop system products that are suitable for these special environments. This will not only solve the problem of product homogenization but also avoid price wars.

Zhao Yonghong, secretary-general of the Photovoltaic Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance in Zhejiang Province, said that the promotion of the photovoltaic building industry urgently requires two important impetus.

The first is the industry level, which requires the leapfrogging and integration of the construction industry and the photovoltaic industry. The photovoltaic companies need to change their thinking and provide integrated services. It also requires industry associations and government departments to take the initiative to actively communicate and communicate with the construction industry.

The second is the policy level. It should emphasize the application of innovative photovoltaic products and systems in the project, emphasizing the use of demonstration projects to help companies accumulate practical application data to promote corporate science and technology innovation, and emphasizes attracting subsidy policies and market supervision mechanisms in parallel to attract Invest and supervise the improvement of project quality.