Tune or not?
Before the official announcement of the tariff adjustment plan, the market is expected to be hot. At present, there are many price-adjusted versions that have been circulating in the market, and thermal power companies that are constantly scratching their heads are eagerly looking forward to an increase in electricity prices.
However, even if the NDRC really started to adjust the price of electricity, it could only be an expedient measure. There is still a lack of market-oriented pricing mechanism in the country, and the process of deregulation of electricity prices and coal prices is still a long way off. At present, the on-grid tariff, transmission and distribution tariffs, and sales tariffs are mainly priced by the government.
Feng Fei, Minister of Industry of the Development Research Center of the State Council, proposed: “Electricity reform should be accompanied by the simultaneous promotion of power system reforms. The establishment of a market-led mechanism that reflects the relationship between supply and demand, resource scarcity, and environmental costs should form a pricing mechanism. The government should manage prices China exits.†During the interview, industry insiders also bluntly stated that market-oriented reform is the ideal way to ease the contradiction between coal and electricity.
However, an inconvenient power industry researcher said: “There is no sign that the country will give power pricing management rights to the market pricing. The power system reform stopped at halfway, after the separation of the plant and network, the bidding was not implemented; the main and auxiliary Separation, separation between the major and the incomplete, and the verification method for transmission and distribution tariffs have not been introduced."
Before the marketization was completed, it became urgent to adjust the power price to compensate for the power plant losses.
“If the on-grid tariffs do not adjust, the size of thermal power shutdowns due to losses will expand and the enthusiasm for investment in electricity will decline. Instead, there will be a tense 'electricity shortage' situation. In March and April next year, the “electricity shortage†will intensify,†said .
Electricity price regulation "de-administration" pending "price adjustment plan" Multi-version tariff adjustment is still full of fog.
Earlier, the media quoted officials from the National Development and Reform Commission as saying that the nation’s power price increase plan will be announced in the near future and that the market’s expectation on price adjustment will be greatly enhanced. Subsequently, the officials of the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission come forward and claim that no plan has been reported.
Despite this, power companies, public opinion and agencies have not reduced their expectations for price adjustment. Proximity to the State Electricity Regulatory Commission confirmed to reporters that the SERC and the relevant agencies are indeed negotiating on the tariff adjustment plan. The adjustment of the time and the extent of the adjustment need to be approved by the State Council.
Before the official version was published, various price adjustment programs have been circulated in the market.
A Huaneng hydropower developer told the reporter: “The industry has circulated on-grid tariffs that will increase by 4 points each time to clear historical old accounts.†Another person in the power industry said, “On December 1, the on-grid tariff was raised by 2.7 points per degree.â€
Shanxi Electric Power Association told this newspaper: "Shanxi power plant on-grid tariff will increase by 6 cents per degree to achieve a break-even balance. The on-grid tariff in the south is generally high, and an increase of 2-3 cents can achieve a break-even."
CE Industry Researchers believe that due to factors such as thermal power generation and rising hydropower generation costs, the nationwide on-grid tariff and sales tariff for the “12th Five-Year Plan†have shown an overall upward trend. It is expected that the average cost of coal electricity during the “12th Five-Year Plan†will increase by about 5 points/ Kilowatt hours.
According to the source, referring to the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†price growth, it is expected that the average on-grid tariff for the “12th Five-Year Plan†may reach 0.44 yuan/kWh, and the average sales price may reach 0.64 yuan/kWh. In 2010, the national average on-grid tariff was 0.38 yuan/kWh, and the average sales price was 0.57 yuan/kWh.
On November 24th, the investment bank Citi released a research report and said, “The NDRC is expected to increase the price of electricity in the near future to improve the current situation of power generation companies’ thermal power business losses.†On the same day, the head of the Shanxi 13 power plant reported to Beijing to reflect the price adjustment appeal, but failed to return.
The thermal power losses that have made them scratch their heads have become the consensus of the industry. Not long ago, China Electric Power Investment Co., Ltd. made it the representative of the power industry. On November 25, a middle-level manager of Huaneng told reporters that he could not complete the SASAC performance assessment because of a loss.
From January to October, the nationwide investment in power engineering construction reached 533.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year; however, thermal power declined by 17.9% year-on-year. During the same period, the scale of new construction of thermal power plants decreased by 14.43 million kilowatts over the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year decrease of 49.4%.
Under the negative situation, power companies, including the Big Five, hope to ease the contradiction by adjusting the price of electricity. A person familiar with the matter recently confirmed that the SASAC has recently sent a working group to investigate and report to the State Council on the issue of huge losses in central power companies.
Game coal "limit order"
Before the electricity price adjustment program was finally confirmed and unveiled, the NDRC began to control coal prices.
Recently, the Development and Reform Commission held a meeting with key companies such as Shenhua and China Coal to request that the price of the key coal for the year can be raised by up to 5% in 2012. The spot price of thermal coal for the 5500 kcal heat in northern ports must not exceed 800 yuan/ton.
The Bohai Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index shows that since April 20, 2011, the comprehensive average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim has been above 800 yuan/ton, and the highest price is above 850 yuan/ton. This means that if the coal companies implement the price limit policy, the coal price will be lower than the current market price.
The National Development and Reform Commission hopes Shenhua, China Coal and other large coal companies will set an example and “lead the stability of coal prices and take up social responsibility.†In places, coal price restrictions in Guizhou, Xinjiang, and other places have also continued.
However, such regulation, the market will pay?
A coal broker in Inner Mongolia told Chen: "The introduction of price-limiting measures will only disturb the current coal market, and the buyers and sellers will be damaged. The implementation of coal price limit will depend on the economic growth next year if the economic growth slows down. As prices fall, coal prices will naturally fall."
The previous coal "limit order" may not necessarily meet expectations. In June and August 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission once limited the sales price of coal for two consecutive times. At the end of 2010, the NDRC issued a notice requesting that the price of key coal contracts in 2011 should not be higher than the 2010 level. Judging from the effect, the price limit policy has failed to restrain the rise in coal prices.
The dual-track coal price plus administrative intervention has caused coal companies to complain. It is roughly estimated that in 2010, about 1.7 billion tons of raw coal for power generation in the country will be used, of which about 30% will be the planned key contract coal, and the price will be 100 to 200 yuan less than the market coal price. Based on this calculation, due to the implementation of key coal contracts, coal companies will lose at least RMB 50 billion in value.
The market confusion caused by administrative intervention clearly shows that “because the price of planned coal is lower than that of the market, coal companies have low contractual redemption rates and there is a mix of doping and counterfeiting, which reduces the quality of coal,†said a fuel industry source.
Coal companies are reflecting their claims through different channels. According to the China Coal Industry Association’s Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Structural Adjustment of the Coal Industry during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the state should deepen the reform of coal marketization and the reform of the coal circulation system, promote the deployment of the railway market, and gradually phase out the procurement of key coal power contracts.
Unfinished coal-electricity linkage in the transition period of power to the market, more calls around the "coal and electricity linkage."
Coal-fired linkage policy began at the end of 2004. At that time, the state stipulated that for a period of coal price linkage of not less than six months, if the average coal price in the cycle exceeds 5% in the previous cycle, the on-grid tariff will be adjusted accordingly.
A senior power researcher said: "Coal and electricity linkage is a transitional plan for power system reform. It once established clear rules for coal companies, power companies, and users. But in the process of implementation, it has been greatly reduced, along with coal prices all the way. Soaring, decision-making departments suspended linkage policies due to various concerns, which caused coal-fired power companies to lose money year after year, and missed the opportunity to guide power consumption through electricity prices and promote the coordinated development of coal-fired power."
Reflected in prices, electricity prices in recent years have not been able to reflect coal price changes in a timely and flexible manner.
The information obtained by the reporter from an authoritative electric power research institution shows that according to the increase in coal price, coal-electricity linkage mechanism, and increase in transmission and distribution costs, the current sales price is about 5.29 points/kWh, of which, coal-fired electricity prices Arrears of 3.38 points/kWh, transmission and distribution tariffs owe 2.41 points/kWh.
Experts pointed out that in the long run, accelerating the reform of the energy economic system is the fundamental method to ease the contradiction between coal and electricity. The reporter learned from participating in the "12th Five-Year Plan" of energy sources that the plan emphasizes the reform and innovation of the system and mechanism. The reform idea is to use market means to solve the constraints of resources and the environment, and the government reduces administrative regulation.
CEC mentioned in the “China Power Industry Development Planning Research Report 2011†that it is necessary to use the market to regulate the role of power generation tariffs, complete the transition from benchmark price management to the determination of investment entities and power generation capacity pricing through bidding in the power supply market. In short, Trading market competition creates electricity prices.
Regardless of coal or electricity enterprises, market-oriented reforms are the ultimate direction, but the determination of reforms needs to be tempered by repeated games.
Experts pointed out that it is still to be observed whether effective measures can be finally introduced during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. There are pessimistic views from senior electricians: “The government will not let go of power project approvals and price controls, and electricity will not be completely marketed in at least five years. Change.â€
Before the official announcement of the tariff adjustment plan, the market is expected to be hot. At present, there are many price-adjusted versions that have been circulating in the market, and thermal power companies that are constantly scratching their heads are eagerly looking forward to an increase in electricity prices.
However, even if the NDRC really started to adjust the price of electricity, it could only be an expedient measure. There is still a lack of market-oriented pricing mechanism in the country, and the process of deregulation of electricity prices and coal prices is still a long way off. At present, the on-grid tariff, transmission and distribution tariffs, and sales tariffs are mainly priced by the government.
Feng Fei, Minister of Industry of the Development Research Center of the State Council, proposed: “Electricity reform should be accompanied by the simultaneous promotion of power system reforms. The establishment of a market-led mechanism that reflects the relationship between supply and demand, resource scarcity, and environmental costs should form a pricing mechanism. The government should manage prices China exits.†During the interview, industry insiders also bluntly stated that market-oriented reform is the ideal way to ease the contradiction between coal and electricity.
However, an inconvenient power industry researcher said: “There is no sign that the country will give power pricing management rights to the market pricing. The power system reform stopped at halfway, after the separation of the plant and network, the bidding was not implemented; the main and auxiliary Separation, separation between the major and the incomplete, and the verification method for transmission and distribution tariffs have not been introduced."
Before the marketization was completed, it became urgent to adjust the power price to compensate for the power plant losses.
“If the on-grid tariffs do not adjust, the size of thermal power shutdowns due to losses will expand and the enthusiasm for investment in electricity will decline. Instead, there will be a tense 'electricity shortage' situation. In March and April next year, the “electricity shortage†will intensify,†said .
Electricity price regulation "de-administration" pending "price adjustment plan" Multi-version tariff adjustment is still full of fog.
Earlier, the media quoted officials from the National Development and Reform Commission as saying that the nation’s power price increase plan will be announced in the near future and that the market’s expectation on price adjustment will be greatly enhanced. Subsequently, the officials of the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission come forward and claim that no plan has been reported.
Despite this, power companies, public opinion and agencies have not reduced their expectations for price adjustment. Proximity to the State Electricity Regulatory Commission confirmed to reporters that the SERC and the relevant agencies are indeed negotiating on the tariff adjustment plan. The adjustment of the time and the extent of the adjustment need to be approved by the State Council.
Before the official version was published, various price adjustment programs have been circulated in the market.
A Huaneng hydropower developer told the reporter: “The industry has circulated on-grid tariffs that will increase by 4 points each time to clear historical old accounts.†Another person in the power industry said, “On December 1, the on-grid tariff was raised by 2.7 points per degree.â€
Shanxi Electric Power Association told this newspaper: "Shanxi power plant on-grid tariff will increase by 6 cents per degree to achieve a break-even balance. The on-grid tariff in the south is generally high, and an increase of 2-3 cents can achieve a break-even."
CE Industry Researchers believe that due to factors such as thermal power generation and rising hydropower generation costs, the nationwide on-grid tariff and sales tariff for the “12th Five-Year Plan†have shown an overall upward trend. It is expected that the average cost of coal electricity during the “12th Five-Year Plan†will increase by about 5 points/ Kilowatt hours.
According to the source, referring to the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†price growth, it is expected that the average on-grid tariff for the “12th Five-Year Plan†may reach 0.44 yuan/kWh, and the average sales price may reach 0.64 yuan/kWh. In 2010, the national average on-grid tariff was 0.38 yuan/kWh, and the average sales price was 0.57 yuan/kWh.
On November 24th, the investment bank Citi released a research report and said, “The NDRC is expected to increase the price of electricity in the near future to improve the current situation of power generation companies’ thermal power business losses.†On the same day, the head of the Shanxi 13 power plant reported to Beijing to reflect the price adjustment appeal, but failed to return.
The thermal power losses that have made them scratch their heads have become the consensus of the industry. Not long ago, China Electric Power Investment Co., Ltd. made it the representative of the power industry. On November 25, a middle-level manager of Huaneng told reporters that he could not complete the SASAC performance assessment because of a loss.
From January to October, the nationwide investment in power engineering construction reached 533.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year; however, thermal power declined by 17.9% year-on-year. During the same period, the scale of new construction of thermal power plants decreased by 14.43 million kilowatts over the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year decrease of 49.4%.
Under the negative situation, power companies, including the Big Five, hope to ease the contradiction by adjusting the price of electricity. A person familiar with the matter recently confirmed that the SASAC has recently sent a working group to investigate and report to the State Council on the issue of huge losses in central power companies.
Game coal "limit order"
Before the electricity price adjustment program was finally confirmed and unveiled, the NDRC began to control coal prices.
Recently, the Development and Reform Commission held a meeting with key companies such as Shenhua and China Coal to request that the price of the key coal for the year can be raised by up to 5% in 2012. The spot price of thermal coal for the 5500 kcal heat in northern ports must not exceed 800 yuan/ton.
The Bohai Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index shows that since April 20, 2011, the comprehensive average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim has been above 800 yuan/ton, and the highest price is above 850 yuan/ton. This means that if the coal companies implement the price limit policy, the coal price will be lower than the current market price.
The National Development and Reform Commission hopes Shenhua, China Coal and other large coal companies will set an example and “lead the stability of coal prices and take up social responsibility.†In places, coal price restrictions in Guizhou, Xinjiang, and other places have also continued.
However, such regulation, the market will pay?
A coal broker in Inner Mongolia told Chen: "The introduction of price-limiting measures will only disturb the current coal market, and the buyers and sellers will be damaged. The implementation of coal price limit will depend on the economic growth next year if the economic growth slows down. As prices fall, coal prices will naturally fall."
The previous coal "limit order" may not necessarily meet expectations. In June and August 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission once limited the sales price of coal for two consecutive times. At the end of 2010, the NDRC issued a notice requesting that the price of key coal contracts in 2011 should not be higher than the 2010 level. Judging from the effect, the price limit policy has failed to restrain the rise in coal prices.
The dual-track coal price plus administrative intervention has caused coal companies to complain. It is roughly estimated that in 2010, about 1.7 billion tons of raw coal for power generation in the country will be used, of which about 30% will be the planned key contract coal, and the price will be 100 to 200 yuan less than the market coal price. Based on this calculation, due to the implementation of key coal contracts, coal companies will lose at least RMB 50 billion in value.
The market confusion caused by administrative intervention clearly shows that “because the price of planned coal is lower than that of the market, coal companies have low contractual redemption rates and there is a mix of doping and counterfeiting, which reduces the quality of coal,†said a fuel industry source.
Coal companies are reflecting their claims through different channels. According to the China Coal Industry Association’s Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Structural Adjustment of the Coal Industry during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the state should deepen the reform of coal marketization and the reform of the coal circulation system, promote the deployment of the railway market, and gradually phase out the procurement of key coal power contracts.
Unfinished coal-electricity linkage in the transition period of power to the market, more calls around the "coal and electricity linkage."
Coal-fired linkage policy began at the end of 2004. At that time, the state stipulated that for a period of coal price linkage of not less than six months, if the average coal price in the cycle exceeds 5% in the previous cycle, the on-grid tariff will be adjusted accordingly.
A senior power researcher said: "Coal and electricity linkage is a transitional plan for power system reform. It once established clear rules for coal companies, power companies, and users. But in the process of implementation, it has been greatly reduced, along with coal prices all the way. Soaring, decision-making departments suspended linkage policies due to various concerns, which caused coal-fired power companies to lose money year after year, and missed the opportunity to guide power consumption through electricity prices and promote the coordinated development of coal-fired power."
Reflected in prices, electricity prices in recent years have not been able to reflect coal price changes in a timely and flexible manner.
The information obtained by the reporter from an authoritative electric power research institution shows that according to the increase in coal price, coal-electricity linkage mechanism, and increase in transmission and distribution costs, the current sales price is about 5.29 points/kWh, of which, coal-fired electricity prices Arrears of 3.38 points/kWh, transmission and distribution tariffs owe 2.41 points/kWh.
Experts pointed out that in the long run, accelerating the reform of the energy economic system is the fundamental method to ease the contradiction between coal and electricity. The reporter learned from participating in the "12th Five-Year Plan" of energy sources that the plan emphasizes the reform and innovation of the system and mechanism. The reform idea is to use market means to solve the constraints of resources and the environment, and the government reduces administrative regulation.
CEC mentioned in the “China Power Industry Development Planning Research Report 2011†that it is necessary to use the market to regulate the role of power generation tariffs, complete the transition from benchmark price management to the determination of investment entities and power generation capacity pricing through bidding in the power supply market. In short, Trading market competition creates electricity prices.
Regardless of coal or electricity enterprises, market-oriented reforms are the ultimate direction, but the determination of reforms needs to be tempered by repeated games.
Experts pointed out that it is still to be observed whether effective measures can be finally introduced during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. There are pessimistic views from senior electricians: “The government will not let go of power project approvals and price controls, and electricity will not be completely marketed in at least five years. Change.â€
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