Apple urgently needs a new thing.
In the conference call after the release of Apple’s earnings this morning, there were two questions and answers:
Analyst: Does Apple have a big strategy for the next 3-5 years? Or do you react to changes in the market?
Cook: The strongest new product in Apple's history is on the road, but we won't disclose it in advance. We have a clear sense of the future development of the market, and can also quickly respond to user needs.
Analyst: What is Apple's plan for the car?
Cook: I don't comment on rumors. However, Apple has been looking for ways to enhance the user experience. Obviously there are many technologies that will revolutionize the car experience, but today I won't announce anything.
Analysts are anxious to ask new things because Apple's current products are no longer able to sustain its long-term growth.
According to financial data released this morning, Apple's FY16 report (October 2015 - September 2016) sales were $18.1 billion less than the previous fiscal year, down 7.7%.
This is the first time that Apple’s performance has declined throughout the year since Steve Jobs released the iPod. This is mainly the result of the iPhone 6s not selling well.
With the help of the iPhone 7 Plus (and possibly Samsung Note 7), Apple expects revenue from October to December this year to reach $760-78 billion, slightly higher than the $75.9 billion in the same period last year.
The decline stopped, but there was not much growth.
As a public company, Apple needs to sustain growth to maintain its market value of more than $640 billion.
The iPhone, which once boosted Apple’s eight-year growth, can’t guarantee that Apple will get better numbers every year than it did last year. The global smartphone market is basically saturated, and most people who buy iPhones have already bought them, and their speed of changing phones is getting slower and slower.
Both the iPod and the iPhone use a better product to transform an industry and then grab the profits.
In the past three years, the car seems to be the next iPhone that Cook wants.
But Apple's car plan is not going well. A project called Titan (Project TItan) was exposed by many media in early 2015. Even Apple Chief Operating Officer Jeff Williams replied that "the car is the ultimate mobile device" when asked about Apple's next big business.
Apple's investment in cars far exceeds that of Macs, iPods, iPhones or iPads. Morgan Stanley's report shows that Apple's R&D funding increased from $3 billion to $3 billion from 2013 to 2015. In contrast, Apple's new R&D funding during the iPhone development from 2004 to 2006 was only $200 million; the iPad was added $600 million during the preparation period; watches and new Internet services were $2 billion more.
A larger campus than Apple's headquarters was established. In July 2015, Apple was exposed to purchase land in the northwestern part of San Jose and may be used for electric vehicle testing. There are currently 8 blocks with a total area of ​​58 hectares. A large piece of land is close to the airport and is considered suitable as a test track for automobile production.
Engineers and executives from companies such as traditional car companies, suppliers and Tesla also joined Apple in large numbers. Even Tesla’s vice president of engineering was pulled in.
All the information shows that Apple wants to build its own car and make money from this market through the experience of software and hardware combination, just like the iPhone of the year.
But in the past three months, the situation has turned sharply.
In the middle of this month, Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the TItan team was about to lay off “hundreds†of employees who would be reassigned to work or voluntarily left.
The whole project is no longer a car, and the team of more than 1,000 people will focus on the in-vehicle system that works with car manufacturers.
Apple executives asked the team to prove the feasibility of the autopilot system before the end of the year to determine the final departure and direction of the car project.
Just today there is news that Apple just opened an office in Canada to dig people from the BlackBerry QNX team. QNX is a widely used operating system in automobiles.
Apple is now moving closer to operating systems like Windows and Android. The iPhone in the automotive world has been put on hold for at least some time.
The market value is second only to Apple's listed companies, and Google, which has been an unmanned vehicle since 2008, is not going well.
Chris Urmson, the robotic expert who has been in charge of the project and head of Google's automatic driving, left in August this year. He also left two very important machine vision technology experts.
Similar to Apple, after doing a large number of modified cars, Google also hopes to separate the core software system, so that it can be transplanted to the models of traditional car manufacturers to obtain the necessary data.
If this plan succeeds, it is equivalent to Google creating an Android in the auto industry for more than 100 years.
In the case of cars, the manufacturing industry does not intend to "equal" cooperation with technology companies.There is no precedent for technology companies to combine digital autos with traditional auto companies.
In 2007, Microsoft and Ford began to jointly develop the in-vehicle entertainment system SYNC. This is a system that connects the user's terminal to the car via Bluetooth, USB, etc., and then SYNC has added features such as vehicle health status detection, emergency call, traffic monitoring, navigation and messaging.
However, at present, several major automakers are developing autonomous technology, or a small number of technology companies to develop driverless technology, hoping to lead the future.
It is not difficult to understand the ideas of car manufacturers. After all, the manufacturing companies that worked with Google and Apple have not done well.
According to a set of data from Canaccord Genuity, only Samsung and Apple are profitable in the second quarter of this year.
Among them, Apple accounts for 75% of the profits of the entire smartphone market, and Samsung accounts for 31% - the sum of the two companies exceeds 100%, indicating that other mobile phone manufacturers (mostly doing Android phones) are losing money.
Google relies on Android to get 2 billion users, making money from app stores, search and video ads.
But the company that first partnered with Google was having a hard time. HTC has been losing money for 15 consecutive months; Motorola has been sold to Lenovo; Sony has undergone restructuring, layoffs and asset sales, and now the closest business to mobile phones is to supply camera modules to other mobile phone companies.
Apple is not good enough, iPhone parts suppliers need to give all their expenses to Apple, Apple decided how much they can keep from the cooperation with Apple - this number will drop every year.
For example, Japan's screen supplier JDI's loss in August this year has increased 1.5 times compared with last year; the smaller, more dependent on Apple's component suppliers Dialog Semi, Cirrus Logic, Skyworks, revenue growth rate from 45% to 150% of the high-speed declines, the latest quarter is already negative.
The operator who cooperated with Apple to sell contract machines did not get much benefit. The operator and Apple have lost their pricing power in their cooperation. But in order to retain users, operators have to pay high subsidies.
In 2015, the total profit of China's three major operators was only 70% of the profits of an Apple company, which will be much lower this year. In the US operators who have been working with Apple for a long time, there is even a saying: "An apple a day keeps profit away" (an apple a day, say goodbye to profits. Adapted from an apple every day, say goodbye to the doctor).
Ford CEO Mark Fields said in an interview last year that he would not cooperate with companies like Google and Apple. "We don't want the car system to eventually become a mobile phone business."
Neither CarPlay nor Android Auto can help Apple and Google enter the automotive market.Ideas like Ford are common in the automotive industry. So Apple's CarPlay and Google Android Auto are limited to a simple infotainment system that is completely isolated from the car's driving system.
In 2014, Audi, GM, Toyota and Hyundai also reached an “Open Car Alliance (OAA)†with Google to “connect Android safely into the carâ€.
In the past two years, although more than 500 applications have been supported, Android Auto does not control the entire car. Its main function is audio and video entertainment. Users still need to connect to the car through a smart phone, view messages, maps, entertainment, and play media files through the screen on the car...
This has little to do with the car's driving system. The so-called "operating system" is similar to a smart phone when you drive.
Even many car manufacturers offer CarPlay or Android Auto when they purchase, allowing you to choose to install.
Technology changes cars, there are currently three trends in electricAuto companies around the world are changing the “energy structureâ€, and more and more cars are no longer burning oil, or not just burning oil. Japanese manufacturers like gasoline-electric hybrids and hydrogen fuel cells, European manufacturers prefer clean diesel and plug-in hybrids, and Tesla's typical new car company has chosen technology-independent electric vehicles.
The European car factory's diesel plan is affected by Volkswagen's diesel exhaust gas cheating, coupled with the tightening of environmental protection policies, European car manufacturers are expanding the development of electric vehicles.
Ditel Tsai Che, chairman of the Mercedes-Benz parent company Daimler, presented the brand's new GeneraTIon EQ electric car. The series is expected to launch different models in phases over the next three to seven years. Image copyright: Ian Langsdon/ European Pressphoto Agency
At this year's Paris Motor Show, electric cars have become mainstream. The most famous car companies in Europe, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, BMW, GM Opel, Renault and Citroen are no longer exhibiting clean diesel cars as the protagonists. The main characters on display are electric vehicles that can be mass-produced immediately, or as far away. Planned electric vehicles.
Calling a car instead of buying a carUber has been promoting, and when the driverless is mature, everyone doesn't need to buy a car. Just call the autonomous car that is cruising on the road to take you to your destination.
There have been some studies showing that Uber has affected the willingness of some Americans to buy a car. There are even real estate developers working with it to replace parking spaces with Uber.
unmannedDriverless cars are another important trend. If the new energy is only the European car companies and Japanese car companies are particularly attentive, the world's car companies are investing money to do driverless.
The trend in the automotive industry is affected by many things, such as environmental protection policies that promote the development of electric and hybrid vehicles, and unmanned vehicles are mainly Google and Tesla's head: Google's first unmanned R & D As a formal company vision to promote, the test car was followed by a road; Tesla, as a new company, suddenly began to sell a "automatic assisted driving" car with a certain degree of completion, than all the traditional car manufacturers be quick.
Originally, electrification is an opportunity for Apple.Apple's products have always been the mainstay of the high-end market, and electric vehicles have solved several problems of Apple.
In the traditional sense, high-end cars generally include at least several aspects, the power system is smooth, which means that the car runs fast; the mechanical part is precise, which means that the car is fast and stable at the same time, easy to operate; the car environment is high, which is generally quiet. The workmanship and materials in the car are better, such as leather, but in the trend of environmental protection, the material part can be discussed.
If Apple makes an electric car, then both mechanical and quiet conditions are completed, because there is no engine vibration and shifting mechanism, that is, the car's NVH (noise, vibration and harshness) system is two less important. The source of noise and vibration. This is consistent with Tesla, which means that Apple's car will not be more difficult for Bitsla.
In addition, electric vehicles are also easier to make. Tesla is the best example. The company's first car, the Roadster, can be seen as a modified car based on the Lotus sports car, but the second car Model S has already achieved considerable completion.
Limited by patents and designs related to internal combustion engines. For gasoline vehicles, no company in history has been able to get off so quickly.
Tesla has not been able to solve the capacity problem, and it only accounts for 1% of annual shipments in its most important US market.
With far more money from Bits, if Apple can build a car in accordance with the 2019 mass production plan, it may have the opportunity to enter the mass market through electric vehicles.
But the premise of this assumption is that it will take twenty or thirty years for unmanned driving to come.
The speed of the arrival of unmanned vehicles may be much faster than previously thought.Driverlessness is not a very new concept. In the 1980s, Carnegie Mellon’s Navlab program designed driverless cars were similar to today’s driverless car concepts, using sensors to see cars and pedestrians.
However, before Tesla announced the Autopilot autopilot function in 2014, no car manufacturer introduced a similar system for commercialization.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has proposed a formal classification system for autonomous driving. The standards proposed by the Society of Automation Engineers (SAE) are similar to this:
Level 1: The driver must control the vehicle at any time
Level 2: Vehicles have individual automation functions such as electronic stability programs or automatic braking
Level 3: At least two automation functions, such as automatic cruise control combined with lane departure warning
Level 4: The driver can completely surrender control of important functions of the vehicle under certain conditions. When the car detects a situation that requires driver control, it will give sufficient time for the driver to take over.
Level 5: The vehicle can travel completely automatically, without driver intervention from start to stop, including parking. The vehicle is allowed to drive autonomously without a driver.
Before Tesla, there were already quite a few cars with automatic braking or collision warning, which enabled the second level of “autopilotâ€, but Tesla used the relatively simple technology to launch the Autopilot function than any previous product. The automatic driving of the car is strong, and it has reached the third level.
In October 2015, Autopilot was officially opened. Affected by this, more and more automakers have adopted Autopilot-like autopilot technology this year.
From the current goal of the car manufacturers, they are not developed according to the so-called autopilot classification. The goal of cars equipped with lidar, high-precision digital map and image recognition artificial intelligence is complete autonomous driving. Rather than having a 4th level transition version.
Ford Autopilot Test Vehicle
Almost all traditional automakers are auto-driving. Since then, Toyota, Ford, Volvo, and Mercedes-Benz autopilots have been on the road, and most manufacturers have advanced the target of commercial autopire for about 10 years. Set around 2025:
Nissan is expected to launch a car with autopilot capability on a multi-lane highway in 2018
Volvo expects to launch a car that “actively avoids passenger injuries†by 2020
GM, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, BMW, and Renault are all expected to launch auto-driving cars for some time around 2020.
GM, Fiat, Daimler plan to launch a fully commercial autonomous vehicle in 2025
In the world of unmanned vehicles, Apple has no business model for the time being.For auto companies, unmanned vehicles are forced by a big environment and have to accelerate the development of new sales points. But for Apple, whether the "unmanned vehicle" can be a good business, there is no answer yet.
Both the Columbia University Earth Institute and PwC research predict that mature driverless technology will drastically shrink the US auto market because it will cause ordinary people not to buy a car.
Columbia University's Earth Institute believes that the total number of cars in the US market will shrink to around 20 million. PwC's forecast is more radical, and their estimate is that it will decline to just 2.4 million.
Better smartphones can help manufacturers sell their phones to more people. This is exactly the opposite of unmanned vehicles, and better unmanned vehicles mean fewer people need to own a car.
Along with the reduction in personal consumption, Uber-like unmanned vehicles will require a large number of unmanned vehicles. But these cars are used to make money, just like taxis are not the best cars, these cars will not pursue quality. Such a market cannot solve Apple's demand for profit margins.
Secondly, the research on artificial intelligence required for driverless driving, Apple started very late. As a frontier discipline, artificial intelligence research itself relies on universities and research institutions, and requires the exchange and cooperation of scientists all over the world, which directly conflicts with the entire culture of Apple's secrecy.
Until last week, Apple had a positive example. Professor Russ Salakhutdinov, an expert in artificial intelligence at Carnegie Mellon University, announced that he has joined Apple to lead Apple's future research in artificial intelligence. At the same time he will continue to serve in the university.
This is a breakthrough for Apple, but for companies like Google and Microsoft, it is already the norm.
Google, the first unmanned car, did not find a way to make money.Google’s unmanned car project was the earliest in the tech company, and the research team led by SebasTIan Thrun was actually a project of the Stanford University Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, which received $2 million from the US Department of Defense in 2005. Funding. In 2007, the team was incorporated into the Google X Lab.
After that, Google's unmanned vehicle team completed a 2 million-mile actual road test using an unmanned test vehicle modified from a regular car, and created a new "pod"-shaped Google-brand autopilot prototype. But Google's vision is not to make a car for consumers: John Krafcik, Google's driverless driver, once said that it's too difficult to build a car, and Google won't do it.
Where is the possibility of commercialization of this project? Selling the autopilot module to the depot?
This model may be possible earlier, such as Mobileye, which provides Tesla with an autopilot module before May of this year, which is the business model for charging license fees.
But now that car companies have acquired and developed their own driverless technology, Volvo has even turned itself into a supplier, packaged the autonomous driving solution, and traditional suppliers like Delphi are playing similar ideas. .
Unless there is no company outside of Google that can develop driverless technology, the technology itself cannot be a threshold for fees.
So can driverless technology be given to small car companies for free like Android?
Android can be because Google mainly makes money from app stores and ads, but in cars, there are no examples of services that have made money.
Abandoning the unmanned car, it is very difficult to build the car itself.The Silicon Valley company that has gone the farthest in making cars is Tesla.
It not only created the first electric car that could sell high prices, but also sold the autopilot technology in the test phase to users.
But its real test has just begun - the low-cost model Model 3.
Tesla's factory in Fremont has a target annual production capacity of 500,000 units. However, in the third quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 24,500 vehicles in the third quarter, with more than 400,000 vehicles in front. The Model 3 order is waiting for production.
In addition to capacity, Tesla's quality problems are gradually being revealed with the delivery of more and more cars. A new report released this week by Consumer Reports, the most authoritative consumer independent research magazine in the United States, found Tesla to be very unreliable: Tesla ranked 25th out of 29 automakers.
The main problem is in the new model X. According to the Consumer Report, the car's doors, brakes, locks, power supplies, in-vehicle electronics and air conditioning systems all have problems. In more than a dozen luxury midsize SUVs, the reliability score is ranked last. The unusual configuration of the Model X, such as the Eagle Wing, electric mid-seat, panoramic windshield, and more, results in higher failure rates.
For a car company, it is much easier to build a high-end car than a low-end car. For example, Rolls-Royce cars are one of the most luxurious cars in the world, each of which is a top-notch art work. However, such products have no way to produce millions of vehicles a year, like a family car, while maintaining quality.
After hundreds of thousands of years of production, the reliability of the car has become the primary goal. Consumers buy a family car like Toyota Corolla, which is the first goal without failure, fuel economy and smoothness. These, Tesla also need to prove with Model 3.
Even selling cars has policy risksAt the end of last month, Tesla sued the Michigan state government for the right to sell Tesla cars in a Michigan-operated direct store.
Michigan, Texas, Connecticut, and Utah are reluctant to approve Tesla's direct sales in the state because of the US "franchise dealership law." This is a state law developed on the basis of federal law in the 19th century. In order to protect the interests of disadvantaged car dealers, many states in the United States have passed this law, stipulating that car companies can only pass franchisees (4S stores). Selling a car, not a store.
On this basis, the states have established the "Car Dealers Association" to protect the interests of dealers. It is also this group that passed legislation to ban Tesla’s sales in some states.
The difference between Tesla and the average car is that it doesn't need much maintenance. It is more like an electronic device. Direct store sales is the best way to ensure profit maximization and sales experience.
Tesla now has direct stores in 23 states, but in states that don't approve direct sales, such as Texas, Tesla's stores can only be displayed, and the clerk can't even tell customers the official website address.
If Apple makes its own car, Apple, which is used to opening a direct store, will also face this problem.
The hottest new business in the automotive market has nothing to do with technology companies.Also in the US market where Silicon Valley companies need to fight the most, the most recently sold models are nearly high-performance pickups and SUVs:
The top three are the three long-lasting pickups in the US market, the Ford F-Series, the Dodge RAM series and the Chevrolet Silverado series. According to the flower bank, the 2016 pickup truck and large SUV contributed more than 67% of profits to Ford and GM.
In the first three quarters of 2016, these cars accounted for 19% of all US car sales.
At the same time, since 2005, pickup trucks are moving towards a relatively “high-end†market, and the average price of models has risen from around $30,000 to more than $46,000. In contrast, the average price of a mature sedan model has only increased by 10% in the past 10 years.
The hottest, most profitable market in the automotive industry has nothing to do with the sharing economy, autonomous driving or electric environmental protection.
Like sales in a few areas, pickups are not globally hot.
But the United States is still the world's largest auto market and the most readily accepted auto market for new technologies. Whether Apple, Google or Tesla, they have to fight for it first.
Such a market may not be suitable for Apple cars.
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