Core Tip : Four things that 4G can't do: multi-mode convergence of Qualcomm and MediaTek chips; the technology gap between operators will continue to be smaller; this will not enhance the advantages of ZTE, Huawei and other manufacturers to a greater extent; Will dramatically change the pattern of Internet vendors. The four potential value of 4G lies in the user consumption habits that will be deeply changed; the imagination is opened by video as the core application; and the development of derivative applications such as the Internet of Things.
Different from the 10G license issue, the 10G license was issued in 4 years after the 3G scale construction in 2009, which is quite compatible with the acceleration of the industry. So, in what and to what extent will 4G change China? In fact, the impact of 4G may not be so big, and four are difficult to change.
Four things that 4G won't change
When the 2G license was issued, along with the enterpriseization of the old Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications, China Mobile and China Unicom were established. Among them, China Mobile, which has obtained the GSM license, has achieved rapid development. So far, the number of users has ranked first in the world. Revenue is also among the top five in the world, second only to a few manufacturers such as AT&T, NTT, NTT DOCOMO, and net profit has been ranked first in the world for many years. However, the choice of CDMA, the US version of 2G China Unicom, and the GSM license, has long been relatively weak, and its CDMA network has only become a political exchange bar for China's accession to the WTO and the US government. In this process, the three major portals, Tencent and other companies have used the SP business of China Mobile Monternet to spend the winter of the Internet; ZTE and Huawei entered the mobile communication market for the first time and became an international springboard.
When 3G was issued, along with the restructuring of the operators, China Telecom took over CDMA from China Unicom, and the most powerful China Mobile won the TD license, and the weakest Unicom got the best WCDMA system. Objectively speaking, this institutional arrangement still has policy considerations. One is to support the domestic TD standard; the other is to let China Telecom obtain a mobile license, so that the strength of the three operators is more balanced and the competition is more intense. This purpose has basically been achieved. An additional effect is that China's mobile Internet has achieved a major outbreak, but at the same time, it has also made operators and Internet vendors move from a win-win situation to a competitive-type relationship. In the meantime, among Chinese telecom equipment vendors, Huawei is the third in the world. The name became the world's number one, ZTE ranked fifth from the eighth, and mainland chip manufacturers such as Spreadtrum, Rideco, and Chuangyi also followed suit.
Now, when the 4G license is issued, the relevant policy factors have been greatly reduced. The main reason is that all three operators will take the lead in getting the TD-LTE license. If there is no accident, they will get the FDD LTE license. The gap between the two systems of 4G has become very small. At this time, China Mobile will of course be very active in 4G construction. However, its advantages will not be so great after completion. After all, China Unicom's WCDMA upgrade version DC -HSDPA, etc., its maximum download speed can also be as high as 84Mbps or even higher, and the gap between LTE and LTE is not large.
Therefore, 4G will not change a lot of things: First, Qualcomm, MediaTek's chips will further multi-mode integration, the gap between different standard mobile phones will be reduced, which gives Qualcomm a certain technological lead, but, since after all, first TD licenses, Spreadtrum, Chuangyi, etc. have not had new weaknesses, mainly relying on their own efforts; second, the technology gap between operators has become smaller, and terminal differences have also become smaller. For example, China Mobile has signed contracts with Apple. However, this will not cause Unicom and Telecom to form a significant weakness, because new customers have become scarce, and the power of replacement is also slowing down, and mobile 4G construction will take a long time to fully cover; third, this will not To a greater extent, the advantages of ZTE, Huawei and other manufacturers have been improved. After all, the two countries already occupy half of the market in China. The "friends" in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia and other countries are subject to political factors and are difficult to enter on a large scale. The expansion of the market in Asia, Africa and Latin America; Fourth, this will not significantly change the pattern of Internet vendors, the network structure of the 3G era has changed The popularity of intelligent machine + data communication, the user experience bottleneck between 2G and 3G is relatively large, but when WIFI is popular and home broadband is becoming more and more popular, 4G user experience improvement is no longer a big improvement, but a small and medium-sized Promoted.
What will 4G change?
We mentioned that the four majors are difficult to change, because in those respects, the speed of the network is no longer the dominant factor - just like the broadband of our home, there is a huge leap between the 56K cat and the 2M ADSL, because there is obvious The bottleneck; however, when it comes from 8M to the so-called 100M broadband, the impact is not that big – just as Japan and South Korea's 100M fiber is very popular, but that doesn't mean its application will be much richer than the US.
So, does this mean that the impact of 4G on industry and consumers is negligible? of course not. The potential impact of 4G is mainly derived from three major aspects:
The first, will be deeply changed user spending habits, and thus affect the internal structure of the Internet. In fact, this point has changed a lot in the late 3G era. For example, Youtube or Youku, these heavyweight products have a flow rate of 40%-50% on the mobile side; News client and public account reading is more than PC; Weibo's mobile phone side traffic exceeds 70%; mobile side games quickly surpass web games and keep developing rapidly... In other words, users are more convenient After obtaining the channel of information and the user experience exceeds the critical point, there is no need to continue to stick to the PC for a long time. Undoubtedly, 4G will greatly accelerate the process of mobile Internet, and allow many 3G devices to be transferred to suburban and smaller cities, and further promote the spread of such popularity from the core and developed regions to the periphery.
Second, various applications with video as the core may open up the imagination. People think of video, often think of the video call of ordinary users for the first time. In fact, the value of this product is not big. Whether it is domestic or overseas, this kind of application is not really popular. This is because video call is not a strong demand. . However, other types of video applications are not, and may have good development. For example, company-level video conferencing, in the past, requires specialized conference rooms, telepresence video equipment, etc., which is costly and completely future. It can be solved at a low cost by means of personal terminals and cloud services; and the monitoring of many children in the home is also possible through mobile phones and APPs... These phenomena are space grafted between software and APP, not a single application of P2P video calling. .
The third, very important point is the development of derivative applications such as the Internet of Things. Strictly speaking, there is no necessary connection between the Internet of Things and 4G. The physical communication itself needs to rely on new technologies. However, there is also a possibility that the high cost of the original Internet of Things application may be through software and APP. To solve, and thus promote the development of the Internet of Things in disguise. More typical is the Internet of Vehicles, data exchange in the mobile state, without the use of GPS and other means, through the mobile network.
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