The slowdown in growth of value-added in heavy industry led to a month-on-month fall in power generation in September

The National Bureau of Statistics released today that the total electricity generation from January to September was 3.090 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%. In September, electricity generated in a single month increased 8.1% from the same period last year to 347.4 billion kwh. The power generation in August was 390.33 billion kWh.

According to the third quarter macroeconomic operating data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today, the third quarter GDP growth rate fell to 9.6% as expected. The growth rate was 11.9% in the first quarter and 10.3% in the second quarter.

Song Zhichen, a researcher in the energy industry at China Investment Advisors, told NetEase that the amount of power generation in the first three quarters was in line with GDP growth. In addition, the monthly electricity generation volume in September decreased month-on-month, which also confirms the slowdown in economic growth and the subsequent slowdown of power generation. However, to some extent, it also shows the severe situation of energy conservation and emission reduction. In the first three quarters, GDP grew by 10.6% year-on-year, but the growth rate of power generation exceeded 16%, and the energy consumption per unit of GDP was still relatively large.

In addition, factors such as the slowdown in the growth rate of large-scale electricity consumption by heavy industry, and the restriction of local electricity consumption by high-energy-consuming enterprises also contributed to the decline in power generation output. Among the industrial added value above designated size in September, heavy industry was 13.4%, which was faster than the previous two quarters. The growth rate of heavy industry was 22.1% in the first quarter, 17.1% in the second quarter, and 13.6% in the third quarter.

In terms of sub-items, thermal power generation in September was 260.1 billion kWh, up 2% year-on-year; hydropower generation was 75.55 billion kWh, up 32.8% year-on-year; nuclear power generation was 6.51 billion kWh, up 4.2% year-on-year. %.

Song Zhichen stated that the main reason for the decline in thermal power generation is that the shutdown of small thermal power plants directly affected the amount of thermal power generation. In addition, the rise in coal prices this year has also led to high costs of thermal power companies and their enthusiasm is not high. The increase in hydropower installed capacity is relatively rapid. In 2009, China's hydropower installed capacity rose by more than 13% compared with 2008, which is reflected in the hydropower generation this year.

From a year-round perspective, Song Zhichen said that despite the impact of energy-saving emission reductions and real estate control efforts, the fourth quarter was a peak of electricity consumption, but the amount of electricity generated was expected to be flat or slightly higher than that in the third quarter.

In addition, the output of coke in September was 31.93 million tons, down 0.8% year-on-year. The coke production from January to September this year totaled 288.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%. In August, 31.4 million tons of coke was produced, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%.