Lei Feng network press: Yin Sheng, the author of this article, Internet Value Researcher, former Forbes Chinese editor.
Abstract: As a disruptor to the transportation industry, DJ has only just begun. The new drops can't live with such a fluke - you can solve all problems simply by merging - but have to return to some basic and lasting influence indicators.
The Uber China merger case that has been circulated for many days has finally been confirmed today. Didi will purchase UBER China’s brand, business, and data assets in mainland China, while the two companies will cross-share. Although the two companies did not publicly say that the pressure on the capital in the merger should be certain, just like the many large-scale mergers that have happened in the past, such as the Dripping, the U.S. comment, the whereabouts, and Ctrip.
Whether it is UBER or DDT, it is already a giant with a valuation of several tens of billions U.S. dollars, and the core indicators affecting their value will be crucial to determine the early market position of a company from such factors as the number of users, the number of drivers, and transaction volume. The indicators turn to the effectiveness of the profit model and the sustainability of the competition barriers. This is because the incremental capital they can continue to attract will focus more on value investing than in the past, and the change in investment style resulting from the tightening of the venture capital market— both companies rely heavily on external blood transfusions —contributes to this shift. .
Merge clearly contributes to performance on these indicators, such as the two companies compete especially competitive Chinese market will be significantly eased, which is both positive factors on the cost, it will enable the two companies to put more effort respective The establishment of competitive barriers and the development and solidification of profit models . At the same time, the two companies will have more pronounced global network effects, which is critical for improving user experience and barriers to competition.
But for the combined drops, the impact is much more complicated. In the article two months ago, "Why is the user no longer the protagonist of the Drip Myth? Yin Sheng once thought that the next competitive determinants of Didi will include the government's game ability, capital influence, and the number and breadth/depth of contracted drivers/cars, and with the introduction of the New Deal of the Internet Vehicles a few days ago, and The merger announced that profound changes have taken place in these industry competition factors:
On the positive side, the uncertainty of the policy is greatly reduced, which helps reduce the company's risks and enhance the company's value. However, on the other hand, the policy advantage of Didi compared to other latecomers has also been greatly reduced - it is likely that Didi will play an important role in the introduction of the New Deal. This reflects its advantages as a side effect. The influence of policy - on the contrary, it has been pressured by market regulation because of the increase in scale, such as anti-monopoly pressure, which will restrict its policy flexibility.
As for the supply side, the drops are facing the same mixed feelings - the new deal will increase the number of cars and drivers in the industry, which will increase the supply side of the drop, which may improve the game with the driver. The bargaining power, but at the same time, the increased supply will allow platforms that have user traffic and contextual relevance to participate in the competition, such as maps, catering and other local lifestyle services, travel services, etc., which may consider travel sharing as Its an opportunity to consolidate and enhance the status of the industry, or at least have the necessity of defense.
At the same time, with the maturity of user consumption concepts and the accumulation of unsatisfactory experiences in existing networks, it will also provide opportunities for differentiated competition. These competitors may not have the advantages on the platform. However, it can provide competitive solutions for those users who are insensitive or highly sensitive, and users who need personalized services, and compete by establishing cooperation with large-scale user platforms. Considering that these platforms have other businesses as the basis for cross-subsidization, they have the opportunity to gain a relative advantage in terms of cost.
Of course, because the new Didi company also has the shares of several major platform-based companies, BAT, these companies also include several major vertically-related platforms in China, such as the new US-Canada. Where to go, Ctrip, Baidu Maps, Gaode Maps, etc., it can be expected that BAT may use influence to set DDT as the preferred service provider when these latter companies provide travel access services, even further cooperation with the latter. , but only if they and their subdivided platforms receive overall revenue from other access partners (including personal involvement) that they do not receive from the drop.
Moreover, even if DDT has the opportunity to establish such a cooperation model, it may risk risking being instrumentalized and thus being controlled by these subdivided platforms. In the latter case, the value of DDT will come from more sources. Its productivity as a tool . At the same time, the traditional taxi industry may also usher in a policy dividend period, and there is an integration. In the past, this market has been highly fragmented due to the fragmented protection of regional policies. Although this area has traditionally lacked the genes of the Internet, There are also some restrictions on the profit model (thereby lacking incentives for price wars), but they may be an important influence in the process of restructuring the value of the industry.
Therefore, no matter what kind of situation, new drops can't exist in such a fluke - just to solve all problems through merger - but have to return to some basic and lasting influence indicators, such as users Experience and the establishment of user's mobile barriers, vehicle/driver scheduling efficiency, and mobile barriers, each user/driver's ability to generate revenue and profit for the drop.
To some extent, DDT as a disruptor to the transportation industry has only just begun. US group mentioned in reviews, where to Ctrip and other cases, is the same situation, these companies faced with the embarrassing situation:
The match between supply and demand has already existed before these companies, they just took advantage of venture capital and user demand for new lifestyles to win a place, but the price is that capital requires high returns for this, and users are not willing to just This new way of life pays a premium. On the contrary, the involvement of excessive capital has contributed to their behavior.
Therefore, unless these companies can eventually create higher productivity than the traditional supply model, it may be difficult to reverse the situation, because with the accumulation of industry changes, it may provide opportunities for those business models based on new industry assumptions, and such Opportunities are more likely to attract the interest of venture capital, just as they were early on for Didi.
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